It’s that time friends – it’s finally Academy Award weekend! The stars have been arriving slowly but surely and LAX has been a hotspot for celebrity watchers. I am so sad to report that I have failed terribly in my Operation Oscar this year, having seen only 5 of the 10 movies nominated for Best Picture. Even worse the movie that I think will take home the golden statuette is one of the ones I haven’t seen! I have however seen 2 of the 3 movies nominated for Best Animated Feature – go figure.
I blame my lack of movie watching on the fact that most of the pictures nominated for Best Movie this year are still in the theatres and not at my local rental store. I don’t get out much you see. I am hoping to get a few last minute movies in this weekend, with Inception being available for rent - so there's that! But, although I haven’t seen all of the nominated movies I’m pretty sure I have a good handle on who will take home the big prizes based on the buzz alone. That’s something that I haven’t really liked about awards season in the last 10 years or so – it seems that hype can and will win you and Academy Award sometimes more than a solid performance will.
Remember in 2000, when Julia Roberts was nominated for Best Actress for her role in Erin Brockovitch? It was a good movie, yes – but was it really Oscar worthy? Julia was up against Joan Allen in "The Contender," Juliette Binoche in "Chocolat," Ellen Burstyn in "Requiem for a Dream," and Laura Linney in "You Can Count On Me". I don’t think any of those ladies had a hope in hell walking into the Kodak theatre that night seeing as every major entertainment agency had already awarded Julia the little gold man.
Same goes this year with Natalie Portman in Black Swan.
Natalie seems to have the most momentum going into Sunday’s award show, with a Golden Globe and BAFTA win already under her belt, not to mention a perfect timed pregnancy and engagement announcement. I think that everyone, Natalie included, will be surprised if she doesn’t walk away with Oscar. But – and there’s always a but – there has been lots of buzz about Annette Bening’s role in The Kids Are Alright. I’ve seen both movies and I would give it to Portman over Bening, but the Academy voters can sometimes be a fickle bunch and they might want to reward Bening’s career instead of Portman’s crazy laugh. I also would have nominated Julianne Moore over Bening too, but that’s just me.
So while a good campaign can pretty much secure Oscar – a bad career move can lose it too. Remember the 2007 Oscars’ when Eddie Murphy was nominated – and was basically considered a lock to win – for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in Dreamgirls? And then a little movie called ‘Norbit’ was released. Many people thought that the release of Norbit was ill timed and coloured the academy voters opinion of Murphy. Alan Arkin ended up being the winner of the award that night for his role in ‘Little Miss Sunshine’. You can note though that Arkin, a veteran performer, launched a strong campaign late in the season that seemed to gain momentum once Norbit was released. Again, I saw both movies and I think that Murphy was robbed. But Academy voters take their academy seriously, and Norbit does not fit in the Academy.
So, with all that said, I do have my picks for who will take home the big prize this year. I’m going to list them below so that I can either gloat Sunday night or make a serious commitment to watch more movies next year! Have a look and let me know in the comments if you agree or disagree! And be sure to follow me on Twitter on Sunday night under the hashtag #YMCOscars so we can chat throughout the show!
Best Supporting Actress
• Amy Adams, The Fighter
• Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
• Melissa Leo, The Fighter *
• Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
• Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
I would just like you to know that I am pulling this one out of thin air as I haven’t seen any of these movies. But – while I think Melissa Leo will take it, Hailee Steinfeld is making huge strides at the final hour.
Best Supporting Actor
• Christian Bale, The Fighter *
• John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
• Jeremy Renner, The Town
• Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
• Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
This one will be tough, but I think that Christian Bale will take it – or Geoffrey Rush. Or Jeremy Renner. You know, one of them.
Best actress
• Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
• Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
• Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
• Natalie Portman, Black Swan *
• Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Like I said above, I think this is a lock.
Best actor
• Javier Bardem, Biutiful
• Jeff Bridges, True Grit
• Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
• Colin Firth, The King's Speech *
• James Franco, 127 Hours
I haven’t seen The King’s Speech (shocker) but I have only heard glowing reviews and pretty sure Colin Firth will wi-wi-wi-wi-win this one.
Director
• Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
• David O. Russell, The Fighter
• Tom Hooper, The King's Speech *
• David Fincher, The Social Network
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Given that I think that The King’s Speech will take the Best Picture honours I will have to give the Director award to Tom Hooper.
Best Picture
• Black Swan*
• The Fighter
• Inception
• The Kids Are All Right*
• The King's Speech
• 127 Hours
• The Social Network*
• Toy Story 3*
• True Grit
• Winter's Bone*
So I put an * beside all the films I have seen and I’m still going to go with The King’s Speech as the big winner this year. It’s had a solid campaign and has been gaining ground since the Golden Globes. Right about the time when The Social Network started losing ground. Also - Winter's Bone pretty much convinced me that I could produce my very own Oscar nominated movie. Not a fan.
I’m excited for the show – James Franco and Anne Hathaway look – at least from the promos, like they’ll be great hosts. Hopefully the Grammy’s will take note! Let me know your thoughts on my picks!
Scene and Heard
Confessions from a Pop Culture Mummy
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